Page 2 – The Tech News Debris for the Week of September 26th
The New Apple Echo Chamber
Bloomberg (Mark Gurman) is reporting that, according to people familiar with the matter,
Apple Inc. is pressing ahead with the development of an Echo-like smart-home device based on the Siri voice assistant….
Started more than two years ago, the project has exited the research and development lab and is now in prototype testing, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing unannounced Apple projects.
As Mark Gurman explains it, Apple engineers were surprised at the Amazon Echo and its success. But how would Apple differentiate itself from the Echo? Part of it would be a more advanced microphone and speaker system. Another element would likely be a more advanced version of Siri, one that better understands its users.
The issue for Apple may well be that the Amazon Echo has a clear-cut business model: help customers buy the things they need more easily. Apple, on the other hand has struggled with its leadership in home automation. Customers haven’t yet seen compelling, consistent, secure home automation systems that fit into their current lives and make sense for the whole family.
The spectre of being locked out of the house or being spied on, with or without the developers knowledge, and the technical overhead it takes to develop an automated home is beyond the reach (or desire) of many. Meanwhile, the Amazon Echo just sits there and attends to its simple tasks: music, news, information queries, to do lists, timers and alarms, and help with placing Amazon orders.
By way of contrast, the Bloomberg article cites an extensive (and perhaps depressing) list of services Apple is experimenting with. Could it be that Amazon’s Big Data analysis of its customer habits is more effective than Apple’s engineering research? Just a thought.
And that may be the dilemma for Apple. What do customers really want to do, and how can they do it easily and non-technically? Surging beyond the Echo into new technical arenas, without a Amazon-like product inventory and/or a much more advanced Siri could take Apple down an uncomfortable, intractable technical path. On the other hand, limiting the Apple product to what the Echo can do today would seem like a limited, me-too effort.
And let’s not forget what Google is doing. “A High-Stakes Bet: Turning Google Assistant Into a ‘Star Trek’ Computer.” It’s a high-stakes endeavor for all.
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More Debris
Macs in Chemistry has compiled a list of scientific apps that run under macOS Sierra. Plus there’s a link on that page to previous lists for Yosemite and EL Capitan. This is a nice, focused counterpart to the more broad Roaring Apps, a broad, crowdsourced database of Mac apps compatible with each OS X/macOS release.
The New York Times asks a good question. “Phone Makers Could Cut Off Drivers. So Why Don’t They?” It’s a good discussion.
Back in 2014, I discussed an Apple patent that could block drivers from texting while driving. “Apple Plans to Block Drivers with iPhones From Texting.” At the time, I bet our Bryan Chaffin that Apple would bring this technology to the U.S. in two years.
I lost that bet.
Apparently the technique Apple uses to encrypt iOS backups is less robust than the one used in iOS9? A programming oops? Or a surreptitious attempt to appease the FBI? No one knows. See: “iPhone Hackers Say Apple Weakened Backup Security With iOS 10.” Forbes continues…
This article was updated … to include Apple’s statement that it was planning to address the weakness.
Finally, TechCrunch published a very good article on the federal policy for how “self-driving cars are developed, regulated, and policed in the U.S.” See: “Federal policy for self-driving cars pushes data sharing.” This includes a robust mechanism for access and analysis, by the NHTSA, of data collected from a crash.
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Particle Debris is a generally a mix of John Martellaro’s observations and opinions about a standout event or article of the week (preamble on page one) followed on page two by a discussion of articles that didn’t make the TMO headlines, the technical news debris. The column is published most every Friday except for holidays.
Oh, it’s an old, old thread. Never mind.
iOS is a jailed limited toy. Mac is a full computer. Intel x86 compatibility is a must. Or else, switch to Windows. A shame for all.
@Old UNIX Guy: Agreed.
@Andrush: True but Apple is about high profit margins which means squeezing standard vendors ( Intel, TSMC, AMD etc. ) for major price concessions. To secure price concessions, Apple avoids vendors selling items they won’t discount because they aren’t made is mass quantities. Virtually all knowledgeable folks agree it’s technically possible but a lot of factors suggest it won’t happen anytime soon ( read prior posts for some ideas ). Brian
Hey Guys,: Heavy duty hardware vendors are already building devices to put ARM chips into Data Centres:
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/10/04/kaleao_kmax_armbased_server/
It’s only a matter of time. How much time? Who knows? Perhaps Apple?
It doesn’t matter what CPU Apple puts in future Macs if they don’t reverse the downhill slide they’re on with the quality of their software. If it’s not iOS or watchOS they clearly don’t care. Switching to ARM CPUs isn’t going to help that. Dumping Craig Federighi and bringing back Betrand Serlet might (along with letting Jony Ive be the CDO for stores, $10K watches, and $100K cars ONLY)…
If they get an ARM processor to be anywhere close to the performance of a decent Intel processor (i.e. not the processors in Airs or the MacBook Retina), then I might care.
If Apple moves to ARM without getting their ARM processor performance drastically better, it’s not a viable option for me.
Hmmm…I can imagine the commercial:
Hi there, I’m a Granny Smith…and I’m a PC
Or I’m a Honeycrisp…and I’m a PC
I’m a Fuji…and I’m a PC.
I’m a Haralson…and I’m a PC
Not seeing a lot of other Apples that would sound as good.
Hi there, I’m a Braeburn…and I’m a PC
let’s see…. a MacBook with an ARM processor makes it an iPad with a keyboard, which makes its a MS Surface.
John M in #7 wrote:
The likelihood Apple has written ( if they didn’t start it years ago it won’t be ready anytime soon ) and will embed it in an ARM CPU is very unlikely, both technically and at a business level, IMO and there is certainly no evidence to support such an endeavor. Nice fantasy though.
Well then, you should be able to provide a fine list of real world devices that folks here can buy to test this out for themselves. You know, a nice laptop or desktop.
That being said, Apple could surprise us all with an A12 processor that had … x86 compatibility. I think it would be a mess, but it would be an interesting one.
p.s. I note that Microsoft has dabbled in other architectures such as MIPS, itanium, and ARM, but they never abandoned x86 the way Apple abandoned 68K and PPC.
“Apple is the acknowledged expert in taking millions of customers though a major architecture change.”
Not again! 🙁
As nice as ARM may be, it’s really convenient to be able to run Windows for games and apps that need it.
One great thing about Windows is that customers haven’t had to go through these architectural switches, which are painful. As much as I prefer the Mac, I have to say that Windows definitely has better backward compatibility in terms of both software and hardware.
Those of us that work in corporate jobs that require access to Windows running well (without a crappy Wintel PC) think this is a really, really bad idea.
Apple doesn’t need to switch to ARM to do this, they can simply add ARM chips in addition to the Intel chips. The software to support different processing units is already in the OS.
There are lots of folks who purchased a Mac because they can run Windows applications natively ( i.e. without a VM ). They are just normal users and not necessarily the creative community. Apple would potentially lose these customers by switching to ARM.
Good point but this would require major software changes( and many developers might be either reluctant or not skilled enough to implement – ( it is difficult even with GCD – Grand Central Dispatch ) because most applications run on a single core ( main queue in GCD ) and use only one core. Even some of Apple’s apps are written for a single ( main queue with the UI ) core. I’m not saying this isn’t solvable but it would be a problem today and it would be a major effort. Moreover, a solution would probably require a major investment by Apple and it’s not clear they have the will to do this.
I think this line of thinking that Apple is eventually going to go ARM over Intel has further credence when one realizes that Intel announced this year they are getting out of the phone and tablet CPU business. Their ATOM line of CPU’s were cut down iCoresomething CPUs originally made for desktops and laptops and these CPU’s were being marketed and sold to device manufacturers from NAS designers to phone and table manufacturers. Particularly with the phone manufacturers Intel literally spent BILLIONS of dollars in rebates and cross-marketing in order to entice phone ODMs to start using Intel ATOM CPUs instead of ARM. It was a spectacular failure and Intel bowed out this year. Now Intel is trying to pitch what is left of the ATOM line ( they’ve killed that name BTW ) to ODM’s in the 2in1 Hybrid tablet/laptop space in the Windows world.
So….just like the PowerPC alliance began to stagnate, particularly in the mobile space ( think Motorola PowerPC 4 ) and in the desktop space ( think IBM PowerPC 5 series CPUs ) Intel has stagnated and dropped out of the key mobile space where Apple is seeing the most innovation and revenue. Apple HATES not being seen as the most innovative in any aspect of their portfolio particularly when they feel they are being held back by a third party…..so….why not go “in-house” with their own home grown ARM based CPU?
So….in my humble opinion…..you will see an ARM base Apple Air in the 2017-18 time frame, an entire mobile portfolio based on ARM in 2018-19 timeframe ( think Macbook, Air, iPad, iPod, Phone and Watch ) and in the 2019-2020 range you will see the first Apple desktop with an ARM cpu.
All the numbered points (save for #1 and #2) made by the author shows a misunderstanding of the subject matter in some cases, assumes a whole lot incorrectly, are wildly speculative or are completely wrong.
To the vast majority, nobody cares what the hardware looks like inside the box. Only the geeks care. Most users only care that their computers work, that I can run their software, and that they won’t get any viruses. Other then the kicks the only community that would care are those with heavy computing needs, like the creative community. However, their needs are being satisfied with multicore high performance graphics cards. If most of the graphics and floating point computations are being handed off to these graphics subsystems, and what difference does it make if an ARM chip has flooding point or not.
BTW, this is another back to the future moment. In years gone by, in the time of storage to put terminals which is equivalent to today’s web browser, floating point processors for separate from the CPU. The microprocessor industry championed the integrated processor chip. Now it’s being broken up again. Everything old is now new!
Not sure moving to ARM processors in Macs would be any less of a mistake than it was for Apple to move to the PowerPC. In the beginning there were all sorts of charts showing how technically the PPC chip development would far outstrip the Intel ones in speed and functionality. It never happened, and eventually the market was industrial embedded processing and about 1% of the computers sold as the Mac’s market share dwindled because of compatibility issues with the x86 world and limited software choices. There were some great PPC Macs, but eventually it proved to be a bad technical move.
It will probably easier than that and it’s easy to imagine such a translator won’t be required because Apple already provides several layers of abstraction for AppKit and Foundation frameworks. Plus iOS( ARM ), already uses AppKit/Foundation, so many apps will rebuild with minor Xcode changes unless the developer is writing low-level, non-standard framework code.
Even though a Mac ARM strategy is certainly possible, it isn’t clear to me if there is strong motivation to move away Intel. For all their delays, Intel probably offers Apple low prices given the volume of chips they purchase, plus they want to incent Apple’s purchase other Intel chips. Macs are only a small part of Apple’s business, and assuming they plan to keep producing Macs ( else why invest the time/money to change them to ARM ), only Apple knows if Mac ARM is justified at a business ( accounting ) level. I hope Apple starts building more innovative products with features we want but realize a large corporate public company maximizing profits and minimizing expenses ( consolidating CPU platforms is one such strategy along with the other synergies it confers ) is constrained.
You guys seem focused on a 1:1 replacement. I’m thinking about 8 or 16 modified A10s (16 or 32 high performance ARM cores) in a MacBook. Many more in a desktop. Good-bye quad core MBP, hello 32 cores.
How about the Macintosh retain Intel chips (until they are not profitable) and Apple introduces a new line of computers with ARM chips named after a different apple?
Apple’s A series processors are approaching the performance of that which is used in the MacBook. So a future MacBook could use ARM, as Apple’s advances in performance are exceeding Intel’s jumps. It will be a few generations and years before we could see a Apple ARM derived design in a iMac and even longer before in a MacPro. All that being the case, more and more people are not seeking faster performance from their computers than what exists now, so Apple A series could catch up to that level. The switch from Intel based macOS based to Apple A series based Macs could be helped along with a system similar to the Rosetta system used up to Snow Leopard.
I would love to see Macs with ARM inside 🙂
I would have to see Macs with ARM inside 🙂
I see reasoned guesses, speculation and discussions portraying a parallel to Apple’s PPC to Intel transition but no actual evidence.
First, there is no way an A10 can perform the sustained computing that is often done on a Mac. It is good for short ( few seconds ) bursts of intensive usage but more intensive tasks are beyond it right now. Sure, Apple might have longer-term plans to couple ARM and Macs but the A10 isn’t it.
Yes, the future of the Mac Pro and anything “Pro” ( and I mean really Pro not just the labels Apple slaps on devices that are borderline to not pro ) is tentative based on extrapolation of current evidence ( i.e. almost three years since a Mac Pro rev and cancellation of their only monitor with suggestions to buy competitor’s monitors ), so if the Mac Pro has been canceled it makes it easier for Apple to wield some future ARM product. Of course a top of the line 27 inch iMac currently can out compute ( and for longer periods ) an A10 and Apple keeps the iMac mostly up-to-date ( so there is no indication of its eminent demise thus giving Apple fewer Macs to address with its ARM ).
So, while Apple *may* take the Mac to ARM, the question is when. The answer is when ARM is ready technically plus the other details need to be sorted out( Mac users who like to run Windows in Boot Camp is one, when licensing deals allow it and more ).
Guy B Serle: That’s a great summary of the situation.
What will happen to hardware sales after someone figures out how to run that version of macOS on a Raspberry Pi (a $35 ARM based computer)?
The problem with most of the comments to this story is that you’re looking at it from your point of view and not Apple’s. Many of you have said that it seems like Apple no longer cares that much about the Pro market and this fits right in with a move like this. Other than FCP and Logic, what pro apps are left from Apple? How much money does Apple actually make from the pro market as compared to the consumer side? The answer is…not much. If they can keep 80-90% of their customer base after switching to ARM and still keep their same margins while offering lower prices across their line, the loss of the pro market as compared to new potential consumers is nothing.
Remember as well that with iOS Apple is beginning to make inroads to the Enterprise market which has the potential to be huge. Apple is better suited to take a chance like this than they were when they switched from 68xxx to PPC or PPC to Intel. They have a tremendous war chest that can easily weather any financial storm for 5-10 years. They have a strong Mac market that has grown quite a bit since 2005 and there’s still a quiet revolt over the changes made since the release of Windows 8 and 10. People are looking for something different but don’t want to pay the Mac tax. If Apple can lower their prices and still keep their margins this could be a win for nearly everybody.
Microsoft and Adobe will release ARM versions of their software for the Mac (assuming it happens natch). They’d be crazy not to. Heck MS is already there with iOS and Android version of Office
Makes absolute zero sense for a number of reasons, seems nonsensical, user-hostile and would actually make the Mac’s less attractive, have less software, more expensive and would drive pro-users like me, over to Windows.
However it will make them 0.3mm thinner because ARM series chips are slightly smaller than Intel ones, so I expect the transition to start in mid-October.
In five new sparkly colours, including jet black.
I believe Apple is certainly moving in the direction or A-series processors in Macs. They want to control the whole widget and likely see improved compatibility with iOS devices as more important than compatibility with Windows.
At the same time Apple seems eager to make further inroads in enterprise environments and moving away from the processor architecture and instruction set used in the vast majority of corporate hardware could be a huge mistake. When Macs relied on emulation you hardly ever saw one in a business setting. Once virtualization was possible Macs flooded into fields where they’d never been seen before.
Maybe Apple truly doesn’t care about keeping Macs in business. Maybe they expect sales of iOS devices will be able to pick up the slack. Judging by the falling sales figures for iPads, however, that probably isn’t a viable approach.
This will happen but we should expect a lengthy transition.
MacBook and MacBook Air are obvious candidates for starting the transition. This is almost in the “low hanging fruit” category. No huge need for big compute capacity or demanding video – so this would be easy.
The Mac Pro is at the other end of the spectrum. It needs lots of crunch an that might be hard to do with ARM, especially given the tasks that these machines often do. I’d expect this one to be last in the line.
belmikey: you’re right, but many games spend most of their time in code provided by libraries or the kernel, and not in actual application logic. Apple did a study of this back at the time of PPC->x86 transition and found that many apps were about 10% local code and 90% system/kernel/etc. So this hit might not be as bad as you fear.
Apple might do this–in fact, I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if they do this–but it would be foolish of them, and their sales would plummet as soon as people realized that nothing actually worked on them any more. Most games for the Mac, for example, are not ports–they run in an environment derived from WINE or its relations, and depend upon an x86 base. ARM CPUs are not yet nearly fast enough to provide decent performance doing instruction translation from x86 to ARM so that these capabilities would remain.
Nothing would make me more likely to abandon the Mac platform. I don’t think I’m alone.
Additionally, Bootcamp and virtualization are not ideas whose time has come and gone. That is naive. Virtualization will only become more critical in the future, not less. And you’re absolutely wrong if you think Apple will deliver a Mac Pro with ARM. The Mac Pro’s problems are with the nonsensical design and the garbage Video cards they come with.
I don’t think this will happen any time soon. ARM is great in single cores and multicores. It doesn’t have floating point, it doesn’t have multiple execution threads nor the thermal capacity to handle any of this.
Benchmarks don’t
tell the story. These are different tasks. Maybe someday, but not in the near future.
I do believe your take on Macs with ARM processors is the future of Mac. Unlike what has been going on over the last few years with Intel; Apple’s incessant desire to control everything possible can be better realized in this way.