“NPD data over the past thee years indicates a meaningful uptick in sales from May to June. Month/month growth has ranged from +44 percent to +72 percent,” Mr. Um said. “Assuming only a 40 percent month/month increase for June and using a range of correlation percentages, implies June quarter unit sales of 2.9-3.5 million units.”
Based on Mr. Um’s estimates, Apple will show a 29 percent year over year growth rate for Mac sales during the quarter.
Mr. Um is expecting Apple will report US$14.8 billion in revenue and $3.01 EPS for Q3, which is above the company’s guidance of $13-13.4 billion and $2.28-2.39 EPS. Apple will most likely offer conservative guidance yet again for its fourth fiscal quarter.
“Looking ahead, we believe mgmt will again be conservative with the outlook, but expect continued ramp of the iPhone 4 and benefits from back-to-school spending to drive continued momentum,” he said.
Mr. Um is maintaining his “Buy” rating and $320 target price for Apple’s stock. Apple is currently trading in the pre-market at $249.95, up 1.32 (0.53%).