Wall Street analysts believe that as many as 200 million users could upgrade to iPhone 11, some of them in China despite the trade war (via Reuters).
200M Upgrades
Analysts project about 180 million iPhones sold in the next year, with about 60-70 million customers in China upgrading their devices. Currently, Apple has about 900 million active iPhones around the world.
These old phones would be candidates for upgrade and we continue to look at fiscal 2020 as a ‘Trade-in’ iPhone cycle versus 2021 which should be a 5G-driven cycle.
Prices are expected as follows: US$749 for iPhone 11 (iPhone XR model), US$999 for the iPhone Pro (iPhone XS model), and US$1,099 for iPhone Pro Max (iPhone XS Max model).
Further Reading:
That is absolutely ridiculous. What is the matter with these stupid analysts? Do they think they can con investors that easily by throwing out wildly high sales numbers? Most consumers aren’t foolish enough to upgrade their older iPhones if they’re in good working condition. They will hold onto them as long as they can. There is nothing particularly enticing about these coming iPhones to make consumers go out and buy them. Apple might sell 50M this coming quarter but sales will fall off to the 40M range for the following quarters. So maybe Apple could sell 150M for the entire yearly cycle, but no more than that. Apple has priced itself out of the smartphone market because the competition is tough and their products are much cheaper. Consumers simply don’t want to spend their money on iPhones, anymore.