“Apple’s recent 10K forecasts FY10 CapEx increasing a whopping ~70%Y/Y to US$1.9B from FY09’s $1.1B,” Mr. Cihra wrote. “And while we recognize this might just be typical Apple conservatism (e.g., FY09 capex originally seen +36% vs. ultimately reported +5%), we do believe Apply may be in motion on some strategic new infrastructure.”
Mr. Cihra also noted that Apple told the SEC it was investing in, “product tooling and manufacturing process equipment.” He believes that this could mean Apple might be planning to, “actually build certain products/components in-house.”
Other tidbits from the research note include an estimate of 10 million iPhone sales for Apple during the December quarter, which puts the firm well ahead of Apple’s guidance and other analyst estimates, but Mr. Cihra characterized that number as “doable.” For calendar 2010, the analyst is modelling for 41 million iPhones sold.
Mr. Cihra also bumped his Mac sales for the quarter to 3.4 million, up from 3.2 million. “Moreover,” he added, “while product rebuilds/timing actually came in line with our expectation/previews, Apple did not end up lowering price-points as we’d modeled, muting ASP erosion.”
Some analysts had worried that Apple would be forced to significantly cut prices in the face of increasing competition from el-cheapo netbooks, a worry that has so far not been borne out.
Apple ended the day higher, closing at $189.31, a gain of $.81 (+0.43%), on moderate volume of 24.2 million shares trading hands.
*In the interest of full disclosure, the author holds a small share in AAPL stock that was not an influence in the creation of this article.