Could the iPad really cannibalize the MacBook line into extinction? Could there be a resurgence of the desktops? Let’s see where it all goes.
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Good ideas are seldom fully defined in a single article. There’s never enough room (or reader patience) to explore every aspect of an issue. It’s really a collective body of work that defines a technical phenomenon, and I’d like to explore one launched by Ben Bajarin. His thesis is: “Notebooks are the Past, Tablets are the Future.”
Ben’s idea is that:
- Notebooks are compromise computers, a place holder waiting for the tablet technology to arrive.
- Touch is the new paradigm.
- A powerful desktop is a better companion to a tablet than a technically compromised notebook.
- A more practical mix for families is tablets for members and a single desktop for heavy lifting.
I could add that as the iPad matures, it will become a more capable content creation tool, especially when you think about convergence products.
Ah, convergence. The new buzzword.
It’s Tim Cook’s Fault
It all started at the April 24 Apple Financial Results Conference Call when Tim Cook pooh-poohed the idea of the physical convergence of the MacBook and iPad line. Here’s just one sequence to follow:
1. Apple’s CEO: No Convergence of iPad and MacBooks This is what started it all.
2. No FridgeToaster for You: Let the iPad Evolve Wherein I argue that any forced convergence would cripple the natural evolution of the iPad.
3. Video Spoofs Tim Cook’s Convergence Putdown: Froaster A company, Brydge, is building a convergence product, a handsome keyboard system for the iPad, posts a playful putdown of Apple’s reluctance to think about convergence.
4. Notebooks are the Past, Tablets are the Future.. Ben Bejarin argues that we’ll really have divergence. The notebook, in our case the MacBook line (MBP, MBA), will die off in time, and the desktop will re-emerge.
More Questions Than Answers
The problem, right now in 2012, is that this notion of the demise of the (compromise) notebook is just a glimmer in our eyes. It started for me when I realized that a 15-inch MacBook Pro (with a meager Core 2 Duo) was awkward and heavy to travel with plus it didn’t have the oomph I need to do my daily work at TMO, especially when I needed to run Parallels Desktop. So I sold it back through Apple’s recycle program and used the proceeds towards a 27-inch iMac with a quad core i7 and a 256 GB SSD. That Mac gets the job done for me. I know others who have gone that route.
In general, however, there’s still significant momentum for the MacBook. It amounts to over 70 percent of Apple’s Mac sales, and Apple is selling MacBook Airs at a brisk pace. There are businessmen, writers, and others who are on the move and can’t get their work done with an iPad with its current limitations, including the lack of a visible file system and massive local storage. It’s not hard to see why sales are great, and Tim Cook acknowledged as much in his comments to investors.
One could argue that we are in an era of transition. The MacBook is holding the fort until the iPad matures and flourishes. The legacy MacBook won’t go away completely until we can do almost everything we need to do on an iPad, whatever course, form and size it takes.
Part of that early transition process, even if Apple can’t play there, is a product like the Brydge iPad Laptop. Consider it a flirtation with the future.