According to analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the demand for the Vision Pro is more than what Apple originally expected. Apple’s original sales estimate was 150,000–200,000 units. However, the company has reportedly sold more than 200,000 units, with US shipments expected to hit 250,000 units by the end of this year.
Kuo believes that the current return rate is now down to 1%, despite rumors that many customers just purchased Vision Pro to test it out before returning it within the allotted 14 days.
Kuo reports that he saw a production line dedicated to fixing and refurbishing Vision Pro returns, and based on his research, he believes that return rates are currently less than 1%. This implies that those purchasing the product now have a clear understanding of what they are purchasing and why, even with the initial launch hoopla.
Moreover, Kuo says that shipping times reached their peak at more than a month, with some pre-orders placed on January 19 having shipping dates into early March. However, since then, the waiting has dropped to a few days, indicating that production is finally meeting demand. Now, when you order the Vision Pro, it will likely arrive within 3-5 days.
Apple is now talking to its suppliers to boost output, which Kuo explains is a combination of the company’s intentions to expand its sales into other nations in the upcoming months and the comparatively strong demand in the US.
Lastly, Kuo says that Apple isn’t in any hurry to launch the rumored affordable version of the Vision Pro. Moreover, Apple is already gathering customer feedback for the Vision Pro product roadmap.
Kuo believes that the new Vision Pro might not go into production until late 2025 or early 2026, with mass manufacturing of new models with significant changes not beginning until 2027.